The US is the world’s dominant cannabis market accounting for 86% of global sales. It is constituted by a series of state markets each with differing characters, regulatory framework and stages of development. In the continuing absence of federal regulation, market value will continue to be a function of tapering growth maturing states and more recently legalised, emerging markets.
This report comes in PPT.
The legal cannabis industry is dominated in volume and value terms by the US. Across categories, it is the largest market, with Canada a distant second in adult-use, Germany in medical cannabis, and the UK the world’s next largest CBD market. At an overall level, the US will see its 78% share of global value in 2021 fall to 62% in 2026.
Sales of cannabis totaled USD19.2 billion in 2021 among legalized adult-use states, with California accounting for over 30% of total sales across these states. The mature adult-use state of Colorado is a, fairly distant, second with more freshly legalized states such as Illinois and Massachusetts and Michigan rounding out the top 5.
Flower remains the leading US with a share of between 30 and 45% in most states (and higher with the inclusion of the illicit market). Maturer states such as California arguably signal the direction of travel with vapour taking a sizeable share of preference. Brand landscape is populated with state brands while handfuls of operators appear in multiple state markets.
Much of the incremental growth in the US up to 2026 will be provided by the more recently legalised adult-use states as the industry’s growth narrative swings from the West Coast to the East Coast driven largely by New Jersey, New York, (and to a lesser extent) Connecticut and Virginia, with these four states set to reach a combined recreational value of over USD5 billion.
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