The global market for retail tissue and hygiene has reached a greater level of stability than had been the case earlier in the pandemic. While volatility exists with countries still responding to waves of the virus, related to hemispheres, the appearance of new variants and the success (or otherwise) of domestic policies. Outside the pandemic, China’s move to a three-child policy is the biggest news event for the industry, focusing coverage in this report to our initial response and analysis.
As expected, Q3 2021 is still a story of pandemic as the world moves through the multiple and evolving challenges presented. Tissue and hygiene although possessing a great amount of commonality both markets present significantly different responses to the circumstances evident in this quarter; tissue still digesting a glut of consumption in 2020, while hygiene benefits from a tentative return to something approaching previous norms as populations (at least locally) become more mobile.
Q3 2021 can be viewed as a positive, if marginal, improvement on what came in Q2, as both tissue and hygiene markets showed growth outlook improvement through to 2025. Once again the pandemic is everything to do with this slightly more positive outlook; immunisation, although favouring the developed world, continues to have its impact as well as government economic intervention which suggests the worst of job losses and recession continue to be mitigated, at least for now.
The most significant/interesting development in Q3 comes with news that the Chinese government is once again relaxing child policy, this time to three children. This news is notable as it indicates just what an impact the pandemic has had on birth rates as it undermines a fundamental requirement for larger families, namely stability. While Euromonitor forecasts the net effect of the new policy to be limited in impact, taken against the impact of the pandemic, this is certainly a story that is much broader than China.
As we move closer to a post-pandemic new normal situation, products that are tied to demographics, baby care products, most notably nappies/diapers, in our story will need to continue to evaluate options for growth. What options are there to expand usage occasions, premiumise within the confines of income reality. With a view on the longer-term demographic disruption now will come with economic fallout from the pandemic, meaning that for many industries navigating this path will be a necessity.
This is the aggregation of retail and away-from home tissue and disposable hygiene products as well as Rx/reimbursement adult incontinence.
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