The global recession of 2020 was milder than expected with global real GDP in 2020 contracting by 3.6%. The global economic outlook has substantially improved since the end of 2020. Global real GDP growth in 2021 is expected to be 5.3%. The global recovery is expected to continue in 2022 with real GDP growth of around 4%.
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restrictions in Q4 2020. Many economies especially in Europe are still subject to significant social distancing and economic activity restrictions in Q1 2021, however the global economic outlook has nevertheless substantially improved since the end of 2020. The global recession of 2020 was milder than expected with global real GDP in 2020 contracting by 3.6% (1.1 percentage points better than expected in the Q4 2020 forecasts report). This mainly reflects a faster than expected recovery in advanced economies in Q3 from the initial COVID-19 wave lockdowns, followed by a more moderate than expected economic impact of pandemic
Global real GDP growth in 2021 is expected to be 5.3% (with a plausible baseline forecast range of 4.3-6.3%). The global recovery is expected to continue in 2022 with real GDP growth of around 4%. Under the baseline forecast, the global economic recovery in 2021-2022 will still leave global real GDP around 3.7% below the pre-pandemic forecast level.
The overall outlook is more optimistic in Q1 2021, with significantly lower downside risks. The baseline forecast and a more optimistic scenario with 2021 real GDP growth of 6.3-7.8% are now assigned around 60% probability compared to around 51% probability in the Q4 scenarios outlook, with corresponding decline in pessimistic scenario probabilities. The baseline forecast is assigned a 45-55% probability.
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