Cigarettes and Alternative Nicotine Products in Middle East and Africa

February 2024

After a year of strong growth in 2021, cigarette sales recorded a slight unit volume decline in Middle East and Africa in 2022. With disposable incomes under pressure in a lot of countries, illicit trade remains a problem in many of them. E-vaping and heated tobacco are also representing competition for traditional tobacco products. There remains lots of room for the further development of next-generation products across the region, given their currently still low sales and per capita levels.

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Key findings

Rising prices see smokers looking for cheaper options

A common theme across many countries in the region has been consumers looking for lower-priced products or cheaper brands in cigarettes. This is in the face of high inflation, rising tobacco taxes, supply chain constraints and devaluation of local currencies. This has seen industry players removing underperforming brands from their portfolios, introducing cheaper lines and trying to keep a lid on any price rises.

Dynamic growth for PMI’s Iqos and HEETS in Tunisia

South Africa is the biggest market in the region for next-generation products like e-vapour and heated tobacco products, and is helping to drive the overall Middle East and Africa performance. However, Tunisia recorded the strongest growth in 2022, which was down to heated tobacco and PMI’s Iqos 3 Duo and HEETS products.

PMI subsidiary begins manufacturing cigarettes in Egypt

The monopoly over the manufacturing of cigarettes in Egypt by state-owned Eastern Co came to an end in 2022, when PMI subsidiary United Tobacco Company started manufacturing cigarettes locally, following PMI’s acquisition of a licence to make tobacco in Egypt. On the other hand, BAT decided to halt its activities in Egypt and exit the market.

Eastern Co expected to invest in heated tobacco production

Egypt’s Eastern Co is expected to launch local heated tobacco products over the forecast period. The company is planning to invest EGP300-500 million in a new heated tobacco production line in the country. This is expected to drive lower prices for heated tobacco products, especially as Eastern Co will likely use competitive price strategies to reach a wider segment of consumers and attract more Egyptians into the category.

Scope
Key findings
Middle East and Africa has the second highest unit volume regional sales level for cigarettes
Middle East and Africa to see above-average forecast period growth
Stagnation in 2023 will be followed by modest growth in the rest of the forecast period
Positive growth expected for smokeless tobacco, e-vapour products and heated tobacco
Prices rising in many markets across the region
Dynamic growth for heated tobacco products in South Africa
PMI starts manufacturing cigarettes in Egypt as BAT quits the market
Chemma remains popular in Algeria
Egypt accounts for the bulk of new unit volume sales over 2017-2022
Consumers trading down to cheaper brands or products in many countries
South Africa driving the new growth in e-vapour and heated tobacco products
Next-generation products recording strong growth
Small local grocers the main distribution channel in Middle East and Africa
Modern grocery retailers lead sales in South Africa and the United Arab Emirates
Small local grocers lead sales of smokeless tobacco in Middle East and Africa
Food/drink/tobacco specialists the key channel for heated tobacco products
Very concentrated competitive landscapes for cigarettes across the region
Eastern Co gains share over the review period
PMI, JTI and BAT present across much of the region
Camel and Gauloises move up the rankings in 2017-2022, but Cleopatra still leads
British American Tobacco leads e-vapour products in Middle East and Africa
Modest growth expected for cigarettes over the forecast period
Possible restrictions in the pipeline in South Africa?
Continued growth expected for next-generation tobacco products
Heated tobacco will drive growth in the overall category
Algeria: Market Context
Algeria: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Cameroon: Market Context
Cameroon: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Egypt: Market Context
Egypt: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Israel: Market Context
Israel: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Kenya: Market Context
Kenya: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Morocco: Market Context
Morocco: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Nigeria: Market Context
Nigeria: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Saudi Arabia: Market Context
Saudi Arabia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
South Africa: Market Context
South Africa: Competitive and Retail Landscape
United Arab Emirates: Market Context
United Arab Emirates: Competitive and Retail Landscape

Tobacco

Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.

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