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Megatrends: Quantifying Shopper Reinvented

4/8/2024
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The Shopper Reinvented megatrend highlights how consumers’ habits are changing across the pre-purchase, purchase, and post-purchase stages of the shopping journey. One of the most obvious manifestations of this shift is the consumer propensity to increasingly make purchases across many different platforms, both offline and online – partially due to an increased desire for instant gratification. For merchants, this means that being “omnichannel” is no longer a point of differentiation; instead, this is now simply the minimum requirement to succeed. As a result, merchants must be prepared to engage with consumers anytime and anywhere.

Shift to e-commerce continues post-pandemic

Although it is not the sole component of Shopper Reinvented, the increasing utilisation of online platforms to purchase goods and services is a key feature of the megatrend. In light of this, it is important to note that the shift towards online platforms has continued even as the pandemic-fuelled explosion in e-commerce has subsided. Indeed, retail e-commerce sales growth appears to be normalising at a healthy, albeit subdued, clip, with global sales recording year-on-year growth of 5% in constant terms (ie after stripping out the effects of inflation) in 2023. This comfortably outpaces the growth rate of offline retail sales. As a result, e-commerce penetration increased to 22% of global retail sales over the course of the year. Despite consumers of all age groups professing a preference for in-store shopping, the ascendance of e-commerce looks unstoppable, as consumers, especially younger generations, continue to shift more of their shopping – as well as more of many other day-to-day activities – online.

This gradual shift looks set to continue into the forecast period; e-commerce is projected to increase its value share of global retail sales to 27% by 2028

Source: Euromonitor International

As this shift in consumer behaviour has endured, it is therefore not a huge surprise to see that Shopper Reinvented stands as one of the most important megatrends, in terms of consumer spending, over the last few years. Indeed, from 2017 to 2022 (latest data available), Shopper Reinvented accounted for the third-largest shift in consumer spending globally of any of the megatrends identified by Euromonitor International.Chart showing Global Trend Prioritisation 2017-2022

What are the most important markets for Shopper Reinvented?

The megatrend model provides a comprehensive framework to map the market potential for the Shopper Reinvented megatrend across 40 key countries. The model helps to identify whitespace opportunities in those countries, where elements of Shopper Reinvented – such as experiential shopping, instant gratification, personalisation, seamless checkout, and a reimagined approach to the last mile – are essential for merchants to consider.

In looking at the global rankings, the prominence of the Anglosphere jumps out. In 2022 – the most recent year for which data is available – the US and the UK were the two largest markets in terms of per capita consumer spending related to the Shopper Reinvented megatrend. Three other countries where English is the most widely-spoken language – Australia, Canada, and New Zealand – also placed in the top 10. With Nordic countries also ranking in the top 10 on the list, countries with high levels of economic development, large populations of connected consumers, and well-developed markets for goods and services clearly appear to be where Shopper Reinvented is currently making the biggest impact.Chart showing trend activation

The Asia Pacific region is poised to drive growth in Shopper Reinvented spending

Going forward, it is critical for merchants to understand which markets hold the greatest potential for the Shopper Reinvented megatrend to grow over the next few years. While the countries of the Anglosphere might reign supreme today, looking ahead to 2027, it is clear that Asia Pacific markets will be driving the lion’s share of the expected transformation – just as they are doing in so many other aspects of the consumer economy.Chart showing Top 10 Growth Markets for Shopper Reinvented 2022-2027Countries in Southeast Asia particularly stand out in this regard. In markets such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia, the middle class is rapidly expanding, due to factors including rising incomes and accelerating urbanisation. Brands, retailers, and hospitality operators in these markets are building upon concepts that support Shopper Reinvented pioneered by merchants in China and South Korea, and recontextualising them for success within a domestic framework. As a result, these countries are expected to lead the way in growth of consumer spending per capita related to the Shopper Reinvented megatrend through to 2027. Even within the context of Southeast Asia, Indonesia – a country that can boast a roaring economy and the fourth-largest populace in the world – stands out from the pack.

In Indonesia, per capita consumer propensity to spend related to the Shopper Reinvented megatrend is projected to record a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2022 to 2027

Source: Euromonitor International

Read our strategy briefing Megatrends: Shopper Reinvented – Impact on Consumer Goods and Services Categories for further analysis of how shoppers are reinventing global commerce across good and services categories.

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