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Forecast Model for Consumer Appliances and Consumer Electronics

11/23/2023
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Loo Wee Teck Bio
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Tim Chuah Bio
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The durables (Consumer Appliances and Consumer Electronics) market is changing rapidly and the environment in which it operates is more turbulent than ever. Euromonitor International is delighted to introduce a new tool, the Forecast Model Durables (FM Durables), that can assist in plotting a course through this disruption and navigate future market evolution.

About the model

The FM Durables has been developed using our proprietary analytics capabilities and expertise, and provides a unique, multipronged view of the durables market. The model factors in the adoption rates of new products, penetration rates of existing products, and the replacement rates of obsolete products.

A unique feature of the FM Durables is the availability of replacement cycles and penetration rates. Using these data points, additional information like product life cycle stage and the maximum capacity of the markets to adopt these products (penetration rates ceiling) can be presented. The product life cycle concept details how product ownership passes through several different stages of evolution – the introduction, growth and maturity stages.

How companies can make use of the model

The FM Durables pinpoints the most attractive markets in terms of size and unmet market potential. You can help shape the future by focusing on categories sensitive to the growth drivers your business can influence.

The FM Durables allows you to:

  1. Evaluate if category growth forecasts are improving, deteriorating or holding steady versus the previous baseline, adjusting priorities and targets as necessary.

  2. Understand how category performance is impacted by hard and soft drivers, and identify which categories are impacted most by the growth drivers you can influence.

  3. Understand the maturity of markets by sizing the overall market potential and the unmet potential.

  4. Pressure test the impact of various pre-built “what-if” macroeconomic scenarios on category growth forecasts. Assess business exposure to risk.

  5. Use elasticities and demand driver effects to identify relationships between drivers and consumption.

Expert inputs

The forecast model also goes a step further and factors in a collection of “soft drivers” determined by Euromonitor International’s country experts, which range across promotional activity, new product or segment launches, and specific regulatory developments in that market. These “soft drivers” harness Euromonitor International’s expertise in the local markets, and their use ensures that the model is flexible enough to take account into external factors beyond the paraments defined within the model.

The Dashboard

The dashboard is updated semi-annually; first through Euromonitor International’s direct researched programme (baseline) and a half year update (HY update), with a hybrid, researched/modelled approach.

The “Overview” tab presents the “baseline” and “HY update” output. It provides the user with a view of how the market has changed six months after the “baseline” data were published. Data can be accessed at global, regional and product level across volume or value to understand exactly which markets are driving changes in the forecasts.

Forecast Model Overview

Forecast Model Overview

The “Growth Decomposition” tab allows the user to understand the forecast drivers affecting the market. It provides a view for each market and category combination, in addition to indicating the importance of each individual driver over time.

Growth Decomposition

Growth Decomposition

The “Market Potential” tab provides our forecast size for a market operating at full potential versus actual market size. The difference between market potential and market size is called “unmet potential”. Unmet potential is crucial for companies trying to find markets with room for growth.

Companies can use market potential when looking for new and rapidly emerging categories, and make decisions on market entry and where to allocate resources.

Market Potential

Market Potential

For further information or to request a demo please contact your Euromonitor International account representative.

 

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