The Impact of Coronavirus on Travel and Tourism

September 2020

The travel industry is experiencing its biggest crisis, with tourism demand plummeting following the global shutdown to help contain the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 is staggered, with Asia Pacific ahead of the curve. Leveraging Euromonitor International’s Travel Forecast Model and latest Travel 2021 research edition, this report paves the way for how travel brands can begin to recover.

USD 1,325
Request More Information

Delivery

This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

On the front line

COVID-19 does not discriminate, and all travel brands and destinations have been impacted massively by the unprecedented global travel shutdown and felt the force of economic and social lockdowns.

Recovery timelines

A major question is how long the pandemic and economic impact will last and when recovery will begin to take hold. The baseline forecast points to at least three years for tourism demand to recover to pre-crisis levels.

Hitting rock bottom

In Q2 2020, declines of 80-100% were reported across airlines, intermediaries and hotels as the world froze still and slowly began to reopen early summer by setting up travel corridors.

Major casualties

Certain sectors of the travel industry may well never see recovery to the pre-crisis levels that they enjoyed, expediting digital transformation that was already underway. A case in point is business MICE, which is unlikely to recover.

Sustainability for survival

Another key criterion is the sustainability of travel products. Mass tourism and cruise were already under the spotlight for their contribution to over-tourism, so the writing is on the wall for mega cruises and bucket list hot spots.

Back to start up mentality

For all travel brands, it will be a case of using the hiatus to revisit their core mission and product offer. In terms of survivors, cash will be key, and digital brands will have the upper hand in terms of agility and speed to act.

No more business as usual

The collision of the pandemic with the climate change 2030 agenda creates a “once in a lifetime” opportunity to reset and rebuild for the benefit of people and planet to maximise the positive impacts of tourism and minimise the negatives.           

 

Scope
Key findings
Travel and tourism and COVID-19
COVID-19 in context
Global GDP to contract by 4.7% in 2020 under the baseline scenario
In our baseline view, the pandemic peaks by end of 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic impacts both supply and demand
Three scenarios examine the impact of a more severe outbreak
Our view in short
Forecasts for Real GDP growth in 2020 under different scenarios
What could alleviate the economic effects of the pandemic?
What could exacerbate the economic impact of the pandemic?
Global shutdown brings travel to a standstill
Travel bans and restrictions by region
COVID-19 impact at a glance
The 5-step consumer progression of COVID-19
Closing down travel and tourism (1)
Closing down travel and tourism (2)
Severe impact of recession on tourism demand
World tourism impact and C19 pessimistic scenarios
Recovery timelines for tourism point to a long-term impact
Business travel more susceptible to shocks
Impact on world inbound travel categories in 2020
Impact on world outbound travel categories in 2020
Regional recovery for tourism demand post-COVID-19
Pandemic causes severe impact on major destinations
Domestic tourism: safe haven in the short term after opening up
Looking to China for a steer on the way forward
US edges towards recession and tourism demand plummets
UK looks to domestic for first stage of recovery
Italy: European epicentre of the pandemic
Spain hit very hard
Global airline revenues to halve
Airline recovery at the mercy of the pandemic and global recession
Bailouts for airlines in the short term to mitigate losses
Cruise no longer resilient in face of COVID-19
Hotels witness staggering drops in occupancy
Hotels on a long road to recovery
Short-term rentals pitch in during the crisis
Package holidays with protection will help in the short term
Online travel and mobile sales not immune to crisis
Digitalisation is still the way forward
Mobile travel sales: Only relative winner
Local attractions and experiences: On the front line of hardship
High-profile events cancelled: Tokyo Olympics the biggest casualty
Governments and destinations: Chance to reset
Airlines hit rock bottom
Hotels witness historic losses
OTAs and tour operators: Bumpy ride
Travel in the new normal: Recovery in phases
COVID-19 will leave a lasting scar on travel
Build back better through sustainable tourism
Finding alternative revenue streams
China outbound appeal, yet need for diversification
Senior market will take longer to recover
Paradigm shift necessary to build resilience
Opportunities amidst the gloom
Takeaways
About Euromonitor International’s Macro Model
Scenario assumptions: C19 Pessimistic 1
Scenario assumptions: C19 Pessimistic 2
Scenario assumptions: C19 Pessimistic 3

Travel

Travel encompasses several categories including tourism flows, lodging, travel modes, in-destination spending and booking.

See All of Our Definitions
Share:

NEW REPORT GUARANTEE

If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extraction Free!

;