World Market for Hot Drinks

January 2024

A return to normality will prove elusive for the global hot drinks industry in 2024. Supply chain challenges have moderated but not gone away, as increasingly value-conscious consumers try to balance their desires with tight budgets. Meanwhile, external pressures from technological shifts, geopolitical turmoil and climate change create new challenges.

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This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Shifting back to volume growth after years of prioritising price

Consumer tolerance of further price increases is wearing thin, presenting a question those in the industry must face as to whether to persist in passing on price increases or move towards more volume-focused strategies.

Technology as the source of a frictionless hot drinks experience

The on-premise segment is shifting towards a new model focused on efficiency and technology, at the expense of the human touch. This shift, and the resulting backlash from the traditionally-minded, will be the key long-term trend in foodservice in the years to come.

Self-optimisation through functionality

Functionality is certainly not a new trend in hot drinks. What is changing is that as the external world becomes more uncertain, individuals are viewing it through a lens of self-optimisation – this being something they can control in a chaotic world.

Sustainability as future-proofing

Consumer willingness to pay more for sustainable products has reduced under the pressures of the rising cost of living, but the threat from climate change to the industry is only becoming more acute. Sustainability is, therefore, becoming a way to prepare for trouble tomorrow rather than to appeal to the consumer today.

E-commerce and the shortening of the trend cycle

All aspects of the hot drinks industry move increasingly online with each passing year. This means more online retailing, of course, but also an increasingly unstable trend cycle, as social media becomes more important as a source of information.


The top five trends affecting global hot drinks
Hot drinks returns to moderate growth after a tumultuous pandemic
In retail terms, hot drinks is a small industry compared to other consumer goods
Hot drinks play a major role in global share of throat
Coffee leads tea in most markets, but not in the most populous Asian countries
Spending in the hot drinks industry skews heavily towards coffee
Coffee dominates value growth even as tea has the edge in consumption
Asia Pacific is both the largest market and the largest source of growth
Brazil to lead the hot drinks industry in retail growth in the coming years
China’s role is underplayed because of the role of foodservice in its local industry
Population growth is the most important driver of global hot drinks growth
Supermarkets hold on as the leading channel for hot drinks sales
Hot drinks is consolidated in many markets, but not China
Nestlé retains a wide lead over all of its nearest competitors
Inflation affects large hot drinks companies in many key markets
Another quiet year for a now-consolidated coffee industry
The four major blocs in global coffee
The names may change, but the leaders in global tea remain the same
The new Lipton confronts the same challenges that dogged Unilever and Ekaterra
The global tea market has a pyramid-like shape
A fragmented set of other hot drinks is led by Nestlé
The top five trends affecting global hot drinks
Trend 1: shifting back to volume growth after years of prioritising price
Price increases have damaged consumer willingness to look for value-added attributes
The permissible indulgence remains important even as budgets tighten
Trend 2: technology and the search for a frictionless hot drinks experience
Holding onto the human in a technological world
Trend 3: self-optimisation through functionality in an uncertain world
Does caffeine consumption have a ceiling?
Trend 4: sustainability as future-proofing
The industry will be affected by climate change regardless of consumer preferences
Many large claims struggle, while more rigorous ones gain share in the overall mix
Trend 5: the internet remains a major growth area, even with post-pandemic turbulence
Trends are rising and falling more quickly than ever in the TikTok era
Global snapshot of coffee
Global snapshot of tea
Global snapshot of other hot drinks
Regional snapshot: Asia Pacific
Regional snapshot: Western Europe
Regional snapshot: North America
Regional snapshot: Latin America
Regional snapshot: Middle East and Africa
Regional snapshot: Eastern Europe
Regional snapshot: Australasia

Hot Drinks

This is the aggregation of Coffee, Tea, and Other Hot Drinks.

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