First months of 2024 saw a year-on-year easing in many commodity prices, as soft global demand weighed on energy prices and prospects of adequate crop supply capped agrifood price growth. However, geopolitical shocks sparked turbulence in the oil market and drove up gold prices, while rising supply concerns fuelled a rally in copper.
This year’s commodity market outlook remains highly uncertain. As consumers and businesses continue to grapple with lingering cost pressures and high interest rates, subdued global economic activity is set to translate into softer commodity demand.
Amid the global economic slowdown, weaker private consumption, business spending and capital investment are expected to weigh on commodity demand and curb price growth. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to elevated geopolitical risks, which could lead to supply disruptions and intensify price volatility, especially in energy markets.
Historically known for their robust economic growth, many Asian economies are grappling with a complex combination of energy vulnerabilities and aspirations for a sustainable energy future amidst a rapidly evolving global energy landscape. This article delves into the energy vulnerability of select Asian countries, offering insights into the challenges they face and the opportunities they can seize to enhance their energy security.
Albeit staying historically high, prices of many commodities are set to normalise below last year’s levels, weighed by weaker global demand. Despite recent improvements in global economic outlook, it remains fragile as high borrowing costs, persisting inflation, geopolitical woes and disappointing China’s recovery weigh on the outlook and dent demand for energy, metals and food. Yet, tightening global supply adds pressure to energy and food commodities markets.
Global inflationary pressures are predicted to moderate further over 2023 and 2024. Slower economic growth, stricter monetary policies of the central banks and supply chain improvements contribute to the price stabilisation. However, there are divergent inflation trends in the largest economies due to differences in the economic performance, labour and energy markets.
Supply chain optimisation is one of the key trends in the manufacturing sector that will shape the global manufacturing landscape over the next decade. Increased economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical tensions, the need to improve operational efficiency and still prevalent transportation bottlenecks drive the need to improve supply chain resilience to better withstand future shocks.
The ongoing slowdown of the global economy and weaker-than-expected recovery in China continue to put downward pressure on the commodity markets. Subdued B2B demand and private consumption, and weaker capital investment growth dampen the demand for food, energy and metal commodities and cap the price growth.
Inflation in the largest economies continues to moderate as slower economic growth and consequently weaker demand help to cap price growth. Inflation forecasts for the US and the Eurozone remain largely unchanged compared to estimations in the previous quarter as easing price pressures of manufactured goods and commodities help to curb inflation.