Global Trends in Commodities Market

May 2023

This report provides a global overview of commodity market trends from 2017 through to 2022, including price forecasts up to 2024 for the key commodities in the Agriculture, Energy and Metals sectors. Insights analyse long-term global trends that can help businesses adapt to changes in the production and supply network, and identify business opportunities.

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This report comes in PPT.

Key findings

Global production output of agricultural commodities stabilises

Global production output of key agricultural commodities has stabilised in 2022 as the market recovered from the initial shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and supply-demand gradually rebalanced. Potential new supply disruptions and economic growth in China are among the key factors to determine agricultural commodity prices in 2023.

Slower economic growth to limit demand for energy

Global supply of energy commodities is forecast to show slow growth in 2023, in large part due to the weaker global economic growth and lower B2B demand. However, supply cuts announced by OPEC and negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine will continue to add to the volatility of energy prices in 2023.

Weaker B2B demand to slow production output of metals

Global production volumes of iron, steel and other industrial non-ferrous metals showed subdued growth in 2022. Increased economic uncertainty, weaker B2B demand and low investment in new mining projects are forecast to further limit production output growth in 2023.

Growth in China will impact commodity prices in 2023

Volatility in commodity markets is expected to ease in 2023, however growth in China to a large extent will determine commodity price levels. Following the removal of lockdown measures and relaxation of pent-up demand, China’s economic growth could accelerate in the second half of 2023, in turn lifting the prices of energy and metal commodities.

Market for EV metals to remain in deficit

Despite the worsened economic outlook, demand for metals, such as lithium, used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries is forecast to grow as EV production sustains growth momentum. The lithium market is forecast to remain in deficit as demand continues to outpace supply growth.

Key takeaways
Production output of key commodities stagnates in 2022
Key trends shaping the future of commodity markets
Global quarterly prices of key commodities
Global production of agricultural commodities stabilizes
China and the US remain the key global suppliers of agricultural commodities
Weaker demand and improving supply help to cap price growth of agricultural commodities
Food and beverages sector to drive demand growth for agricultural commodities
Slower global economic growth to limit production of energy
US expected to strengthen its position in the global energy market
Energy prices stabilise but risks remain
Weak growth of manufacturing sector to constrain demand for energy commodities
Weaker B2B demand contributes to slow production volume growth of metals
China remains the key supplier of industrial metals to the global market
Insufficient supply remains the key risk to price stability of metals
Underperforming metal products and machinery sectors to cap demand for metal ores
Global production overview of wheat
Higher wheat prices encourage production output expansion
Global production overview of rice
India forecast to drive rice output growth and exports
Global production overview of sugar cane
Adverse weather conditions expected to hurt production of sugar cane
Global production overview of poultry
Growing demand in emerging markets to support production output growth of poultry
Global production overview of cotton lint
Cotton lint production predicted to fall due to decline in area harvested
Global production overview of crude oil and natural gas liquids
Weaker demand to cap production output of crude oil
Global production overview of natural gas
Natural gas production forecast to improve as output in the US increases
Global production overview of coal, peat and oil shale
Coal production forecast to show moderate growth in 2023 thanks to the demand in Asia
Global production overview of crude steel
Emerging countries to drive steel production growth
Global production overview of aluminium
Aluminium demand to slow due to weaker economy, yet long-term outlook remains positive
Global production overview of copper
Growing demand and slow output growth may create market imbalances
Global production overview of nickel
Weaker demand and improved supply to help stabilise nickel prices
Global production overview of lithium
Long mining project cycles and rising demand to add to lithium shortages
Key takeaways


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