Global Market Overview of Wheat

December 2023

The global wheat market in 2023 has seen a recovery in supply, following tight global supply and skyrocketing wheat prices in 2022 resulting from the onset of the war in Ukraine. Increased wheat exports from Russia, readjustments of supply chains and domestic interventions in the market have helped wheat prices to see a double-digit decline in 2023. Nevertheless, looming geopolitical tensions on a global level are expected to pose a risk to global wheat supply in the short term.

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This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Rising demand for animal feed in Asia Pacific

Rapid population growth and rising consumer affluence in Asia Pacific will provide key drive for increasing wheat consumption in the region. The rising appetites for meat and baked goods are stimulating animal feed demand, especially in China, who is rapidly growing its pig and swine herds after losses due to African Swine Fever.

Turbulence in wheat price

While wheat price inflation is expected to soften after the peak in summer 2022, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has potential to continue providing instability for the commodity market. The hard-hit Ukrainian wheat harvest prospects in 2022, ongoing trade tension and sanctions against Russia are able to cause turbulence over the short-term outlook, coupled with inflating input costs, such as fuel and fertiliser.

Shifts in global wheat trade

Strong global demand and peaking prices are motivating some large producers to export more of the domestic production. For example, as one of the largest global producers, India and Canada are well positioned to increase its trade volumes.

Pessimistic growth trends in Western markets

The US and Europe are largely saturated markets when it comes to wheat-based products consumption. The population growth is limited, while current Western consumers are increasingly choosing gluten free alternatives to fill their diets. Overall, North America and Western and Eastern Europe regions are set on either decline or stagnating growth in production of grain mill and bakery products in real value terms.

Key findings
Key trends impacting wheat market in 2023
Recovery of global wheat supply in 2023, despite challenging weather conditions
China remains the largest wheat producer in the world in 2022/2023
China : The country bumps up wheat imports in light of weak wheat harvests in 2023
India : Poor weather conditions negatively impact India’s wheat output
Russia : W heat production increases in 2023 for the second year in a row
Wheat prices fall sharply in 2023, due to rise in Russian supplies
Wheat prices forecast to continue deflationary trend
Global demand for wheat remains strong as it remains a staple in human diets
Demand drivers for wheat across key buyer industries
Grain Mill Products : Growth driven by rising demand and population in Asia
Bakery Products : Demand supported by rising disposable income and Western-like diets
Pasta and Noodles : Positive global growth projected during the forecast period
Top 10 country profile: China
Top 10 country profile : India
Top 10 country profile : Russia
Top 10 country profile: US
Top 10 country profile : France
Top 10 country profile : Australia
Top 10 country profile : Ukraine
Top 10 country profile : Pakistan
Top 10 country profile : Germany
Top 10 country profile : Canada
Key findings


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