Global Inflation Tracker: Q4 2023

November 2023

This report examines inflation levels and drivers globally and in key countries in Q4 2023 and 2024. Global inflation is moderating, although divergence remains among the key economies. Higher volatility in the energy markets and disruption of agricultural commodities remain among the risks adding to inflationary pressures. Increasing prices also undermine consumer purchasing power, while persistent inflationary pressures encourage central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies.

USD 1,325
Request More Information


This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Inflationary pressures forecast to continue to ease in 2024

Global inflation is expected to decelerate to 6.9% in 2023 and moderate further in 2024 to 4.9%. Stricter monetary policies, weaker economic growth and a consequent demand slowdown will help to reduce price pressures. Lower food commodity and, especially, energy prices are also helping to curb inflationary pressures. Nonetheless, inflation in the largest economies remains above a 2% level due to persistently high core inflation (excluding price fluctuations of energy and food). This is likely to prompt central banks to keep interest rates higher for a longer period.

Labour markets show signs of cooling down

Inflationary pressures from services remain elevated and contribute to the persistently high core inflation. Strong labour markets and consequently growing wages as well as strong consumer spending in the largest economies are contributing to the price pressures in the services sector. However, the labour markets and wage growth are forecast to soften in 2024 because of weaker economic growth. Consumer spending on non-essential services, such as travel or entertainment, is also forecast to slow down and limit the price growth of services from the demand side.

Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions remain among the key risks for global inflation

Economic volatility and geopolitical tensions are set to prevail in 2024, in turn increasing the risks of higher inflation. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas war to the wider region could lead to a resurgence of energy prices. A rise in economic fragmentation between China and advanced economies can also add inflationary pressures. Restriction of trade flows, export bans on certain goods or commodities as well as the possibility of restrictive trade tariffs can impact global supply chains. This would result in higher prices of manufactured goods and increased inflationary pressures.

Key findings
Slower global economic growth to ease inflationary pressures in 2024
Forecast inflation rate in 2024 across countries
Key factors driving inflation in Q4 2023
Prices of manufactured goods forecast to remain stable due to weak global demand
Services inflation to ease in 2024, yet long-term challenges continue to add pressure
Housing prices continue to cool down as tighter monetary policies take effect
Weaker demand and improved supply helps to cap commodity price pressures
Geopolitically driven supply-side disruptions present major upside inflation risks in 2024
Interest rates are forecast to peak as inflation is cooling down
Inflation forecasts Q4 2023
Key risks for higher inflation in 2024
Weaker economic growth in 2024 to hurt consumer income gains
Consumer spending expected to sustain growth momentum, but confidence is declining
Online prices of food products indicate declining price pressures in Q3 2023
US: Price pressures level off as housing becomes the primary inflation driver
China: Consumers’ weaker domestic demand continues to suppress price growth
France: Waning effects of 2022 energy price caps lead to persistent inflation in 2023
Germany: Inflation slows down largely due to slowdown in economic activities
Italy: New anti-inflation pact shows first signs of significant inflation reduction
Spain: Food inflation and unfavourable weather conditions add to price pressures
UK: Easing of inflation continues despite rising external risks
Japan: Inflation continues to accelerate due to broadened price pressures
Brazil: Inflation continues to ease despite persistent price pressures
India: Food inflation remains the key driver of inflation in 2023
Inflationary pressures ease yet geopolitical tensions increase commodity supply risks
Key country insights


If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extraction Free!